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Friday, December 28 2012

The housing market is poised for a “gradual but steady” recovery in 2013, with housing starts, permits, prices, home sales, and builder confidence all on the rise, the National Association of Home Builders reports. But how close to “normal” is the housing market?

Remodeling has returned to normal levels, says David Crowe, the NAHB’s chief economist, using the 2000-2002 period as a benchmark for normal levels. Mutlifamily production is 69 percent of normal.

"It's the single-family market that has the farthest to go, standing at only 40 percent of what is considered a typical market," Crowe says.

The housing market is expected to make big strides to getting closer to more normal levels, due mostly to a rise in home prices and household formation that is adding to demand, the NAHB reports.

Single-family housing starts are forecasted to reach 534,000 units this year, up 23 percent this year from 2011. For 2013, single-family housing starts is expected to jump 21 percent in 2013 and another 29 percent gain in 2014 to 837,000 units.

Multifamily production is forecast to jump 31 percent this year to 233,000, and gain another 16 percent in 2013 to 270,000.

New single-family home sales are forecast to post a 20 percent jump this year to 367,000 and to rise another 22 percent in 2013, and reach 607,000 by 2014.

Source: National Association of Home Builders

http://realtormag.realtor.org/daily-news/2012/12/26/how-normal-housing-market

Posted by: Rolando Trentini AT 08:00 am   |  Permalink   |  0 Comments  |  Email
Friday, March 23 2012

Economists say the housing market is starting to heal, but too many people aren't aware of it because they're judging a housing recovery on the wrong sign: What’s happening with home prices.

Paul Dales at Capital Economics says higher prices won’t be the sign that the housing market is on the mend — that can be a lagging indicator — but rather an increase in overall home sales. And that's showing signs of improvement: Existing home sales in 2011 rose to 4.26 million compared to 4.19 million in 2010. In the last six months alone, home sales have increased 13 percent.

As a recent article at Fortune points out, “The evidence reminds us that perhaps we should change our expectations of what a housing recovery might look like, particularly following a crisis marked by record foreclosures and a financial crisis that sent the economy into one of the deepest recessions. The recovery we have been anticipating is defined more on the rate at which the glut of vacant properties comes off the market as opposed to any steady rise in prices, which some think won't happen for another few years.”

Source: “The One Number to Watch for a Housing Recovery,” Fortune (March 20, 2012)

Posted by: Rolando Trentini AT 08:00 am   |  Permalink   |  Email
Friday, October 14 2011
Double the number of housing markets moved into the “improving” category this month compared to last month, according to the National Association of Home Builders/First American Improving Markets Index, which debuted last month.

Twenty-three housing markets qualified as “improving” compared to 12 last month. Metro areas are considered “improving” if they show an improvement in housing permits, employment, and housing prices for at least six months. Texas cities appear the most frequently on the list.

"Both the number and geographic diversity of improving housing markets expanded this month, with Iowa, Illinois, and South Carolina all newly represented by one entry or more on the list," Bob Nielsen, NAHB chairman, said in a statement. "This is further evidence that, despite the tough conditions that persist in many cities, pockets of improvement are emerging in local housing markets across the country."

The following are the 23 markets labeled “improving” in October, according to NAHB’s index:

  • Alexandria, La.
  • Amarillo, Texas
  • Anchorage, Alaska
  • Bismarck, N.D.
  • Casper, Wyo.
  • Fairbanks, Ark.
  • Fayetteville, N.C.
  • Houma, La.
  • Iowa City, Iowa
  • Jonesboro, Ark.
  • Kankakee, Ill.
  • McAllen, Texas
  • Midland, Texas
  • New Orleans, La.
  • Odessa, Texas
  • Pine Bluff, Ark.
  • Pittsburgh, Pa.
  • Sherman, Texas
  • Sumter, S.C.
  • Waco, Texas
  • Waterloo, Iowa
  • Wichita Falls, Texas
  • Winston-Salem, N.C.

By Melissa Dittmann Tracey, REALTOR® Magazine Daily News

Source: http://realtormag.realtor.org/daily-news/2011/10/07/23-housing-markets-show-big-improvement

Posted by: Rolando Trentini AT 11:46 am   |  Permalink   |  Email
Tuesday, October 11 2011
Another housing market slump may be on the way but Evansville realtors are not worrying about it.

The President of the Evansville Association of Realtors Chris Dickson says home sales are up from last year.

Dickson tells NEWS 25 July sales were up 19 percent and up 33 percent in August.

He also say the average price is also up 20 percent because people are buying more expensive homes.

Dickson tells us less foreclosures are coming onto the market but there are still several foreclosure properties sitting vacant in Evansville.

Source: http://www.news25.us/story/15617516/evansville-realtors-not-worried-about-housing-market

Posted by: Rolando Trentini AT 08:00 am   |  Permalink   |  0 Comments  |  Email
Tuesday, September 21 2010

By Robert Freedman, senior editor, REALTOR® Magazine

A piece in the Wall Street Journal yesterday took issue with a recent Time cover story calling into question some of our most cherished beliefs about homeownership. Much of what the Journal talks about isn’t new. In fact, it recites benefits of homeownership that you already know better than anyone. But in pulling them together in the way it does, it makes you realize just how compelling homeownership is from just about every standpoint. If you haven’t seen the piece, by Brett Arends, here’s a thumbnail sketch of its 10 points:

Why is now a great time to buy?

1. You can get a good deal. Prices are down 30 percent on average. They’re at a level that makes sense for people’s income.

2. Mortgages are cheap. At 4.3 percent on average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, your costs to own are down by a fifth from two years ago.

3. You can save on taxes. When you add up the deductions for mortgage interest and others, the cost of owning can drop below renting for a comparable place.

4. It’ll be yours. The one benefit to owning that never changes is that you can paint your walls orange if you want (generally speaking; there might be some community restrictions). How many landlords will let you do that?

5. You can get a better home. In some markets, it’s simply the case that the nicest places are for-sale homes and condos.

6. It offers some inflation protection. Historically, appreciation over time outpaces inflation.

7. It’s risk capital. If the economy picks up, you stand to benefit from that, even if you’re goal is just to have a nice place to live.

8. It’s forced savings. A part of your payment each month goes to equity.

9. There is a lot to choose from. There are some 4 million homes available today, about a year’s supply. Now’s the time to find something you like and get it.

10. Sooner or later the market will clear. The U.S. is expected to grow by another 100 million people in 40 years. They have to live somewhere. Demand will eventually outpace supply.

Read the story yourself.

Posted by: Rolando Trentini AT 08:00 am   |  Permalink   |  Email
Thursday, August 12 2010

From a price perspective, the latest news is good for the housing market. Home prices for the second quarter are up on a year-over-year basis in almost two-thirds of the big metro areas that the National Association of REALTORS® tracks, and in almost 10 percent of markets, the gains were in the double digits. The national median home price at the end of June was $176,900, about 1.5 percent higher than the same time last year.

Although the clear firming up of prices is positive, the question you’re no doubt asking is: What happens going forward? The second-quarter data reflects the impact of the home buyer tax credit. When it comes out, the third-quarter data won’t have the stimulus effect of that credit. So, what the numbers look like at the end of September will be illuminating.

Based on his most recent comments, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun believes prices should hold steady, with no swings either up or down, for the near term even though the tax credit is gone and the economy isn’t being cooperative. The reason for the predicted stability is the way prices change over time. Price shifts tend to reflect longer-term trends, and the long-term trend for the past year or so has been stabilization.

As I interpret his point, there would have to be a significant shift in the economy for big changes to show up in broad home price trends. So, if the economy remains sluggish but doesn’t lurch downward, prices could remain relatively stable (with small up or down movement on a month-to-month basis) for the next several months. But if the economy remains sluggish until, say, the end of the year and beyond, then prices could be affected.

Of course, you have to approach national price data with a realistic eye. Last year, distressed sales comprised almost 40 percent of sales, compared to a little over 30 percent this year through the second quarter. That means some of the price improvement could be the result of the different mix of properties, not price appreciation.

The bottom line, though, is that prices so far are stable. That’s good for consumer confidence. When the stable prices are combined with historically low rates (about 4.9 percent on average right now for long-term, fixed-rate financing), you have good conditions for the market. For that reason, housing prospects are really hinging on jobs. Tepid job growth is the main impediment to rising consumer confidence.

Access NAR’s latest quarterly price data for yourself: Metro Area Median Prices.

Source: http://speakingofrealestate.blogs.realtor.org/2010/08/11/home-price/#more-3208

Posted by: Rolando Trentini AT 08:00 am   |  Permalink   |  Email
Wednesday, April 21 2010
WASHINGTON, DC — Housing is stabilizing but excess inventory and shadow supply are hindering recovery according to the April 2010 Economic Outlook released today by Fannie Mae's (FNM/NYSE) Economics & Mortgage Market Analysis Group. The outlook projects economic growth of 3.1 percent for all of 2010, notwithstanding the recent dip in growth for the first quarter.
 "Financial conditions are improving as seen by the unwinding of various programs, most notably the MBS purchase program which ended in March. This is strong evidence that the Fed believes the financial sector can stand on its own," said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan. "We estimate that June 2009 was the end of the recession, a good sign that we're moving forward. Nevertheless, significant improvements in the labor market and consumer spending will be the big hurdles as we move toward recovery in the housing market and broader economy."
 New home sales are at record lows and will be slow to recover until inventory of existing homes and the foreclosure overhang are worked off. However, we see key indicators for existing home sales, including pending home sales and purchase applications, are showing good signs of a pickup.
 Jobs, a driving force for housing, are now moving in the right direction. Fundamentals of the labor market appear to be improving as layoffs have slowed and hiring is showing signs of life. March payroll employment increased by 162,000, the largest gain in three years; temp employment posted a sixth consecutive monthly gain; and the average workweek increased. On the downside, unemployment will remain elevated for some time, despite the peak unemployment rate of 10.1 percent likely having occurred in October 2009.
 The Economic Outlook includes the Economic Developments commentary, Economic Forecast, and Housing Forecast — which detail movement of interest rates, the housing market, the mortgage market, and the overall economic climate. To read the full April 2010 Economic Outlook, visit the Economics & Mortgage Market Analysis site at http://www.fanniemae.com.
Posted by: Rolando Trentini AT 02:00 pm   |  Permalink   |  0 Comments  |  Email
Monday, April 12 2010

Home sales in Middle Tennessee are up for the sixth straight month compared to a year ago. And the number of homes for sale jumped dramatically in March, which officials say shows growing confidence in the economy.

A new report from the Greater Nashville Association of Realtors says home prices have held steady, and the number of pending sales is up.

And GNAR president Lucy Smith says more houses are on the market. She says many people have been wanting to move, but were holding off, out of worry for the economy –

“–The possibility of job loss and layoffs, and now things seem to have stabilized more, and people have more confidence in what their job situation is. And we know there were a lot of people wanting to do something but were hesitant to do it because of the unknown.”

Smith notes spring is typically an up time for home sales, and tax credits have also helped the market. But she says the first-time home buyer’s tax credit expires this month, and probably won’t be renewed.

Source: http://wpln.org/?p=16440

Posted by: Rolando Trentini AT 08:00 am   |  Permalink   |  0 Comments  |  Email
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The Trentini Team
F.C. Tucker EMGE REALTORS®
7820 Eagle Crest Bvd., Suite 200
Evansville, IN 47715
Office: (812) 479-0801
Cell: (812) 499-9234
Email: Rolando@RolandoTrentini.com


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