Market Watch December 2014

I realize that Thanksgiving has passed us this year but I wanted to mention several real estate specific results and other factors for which we should all be thankful.

Although 2014 is not yet finished, our local market is certain to close more real estate volume than we did in 2013 and that is on top of the huge recovery we made in 2012.  In fact, our multiple listing service will close more dollar volume in sales than the previous year for the 4th consecutive year and sales volume will be 36% higher than it was in 2010.  In addition, our average sales price has increased 6.2% this year and will be a whopping 15% higher than it was in 2010.

I believe that this slow, but steady, recovery is a result of both increased consumer confidence and a similar slow, but gradually improving job environment.  The housing market is tied directly to qualified homeowners.  A job is the first step in qualification and with over 300,000 net new jobs created last month, I’m confident that some will soon be first time buyers.

Another positive development is that the Federal Housing Finance Authority recently issued new more clear rules which will allow lenders to be more confident about the types of residential mortgage loans they make.  I expect more buyers will qualify for loans in the future than the recent past.  Clearly this helps the housing market.

From a strictly local perspective, I’m very excited about the new convention hotel and the Medical Center coming to Southwest Indiana.  Both of these projects will provide a significant economic boost to our area for years to come.  All of these give me plenty of reasons to be thankful and optimistic about real estate.

Finally, I can’t wait to give you a taste of what’s coming in January!  Although FCTuckerEmge.com is already the area’s dominant real estate website we are launching a newer upgraded FCTuckerEmge.com next month.  The enhanced site will have bigger, brighter pictures, a really cool mapping function and lots of other features I’m sure you will like.

Kathy and I extend our best wishes for a joyous holiday season.

Market Watch October 2014

     I have a lot of interesting information and statistics for this month’s Market Watch, but before I start that discussion I think I should share some basic real estate concepts.  First, basic economic concepts apply to real estate.  For example, increased supply results in decreased demand, which lowers prices.  Conversely decreased supply results in increased demand, which increases prices.  The catch to this basic principle is that other factors such as the general state of the economy, the job market, interest rates and consumer optimism also affect prices as well as buyers and sellers desire to buy or sell homes.  With this most basic background let’s now explore some interesting trends in the market.

     First, according to The Wall Street Journal, new home sales (as opposed to previously owned homes) were at their highest level in August since May of 2008.  These sales were up 33% compared to August of last year.  Although this is clearly good news, I think we should view this in context of very low new home construction over the past few years.  Good numbers in August suggest full year totals of between 400,000 and 450,000 new home sales for all of 2014.  Although this is clearly an improvement from less than 250,000 sales a few years ago, it still falls far short of the 1 million new homes that sold at the height of the real estate boom.  Increased new home sales have left only a 4.8 month supply of new homes on the market.

     A second fact, according to RIS Media, is that prices increased for the 30^th consecutive month when compared to the previous year.  This statistic seems pretty clear.  Home prices continue to rise at what has remained a pretty steady pace.  The median price of a home nationwide is now $219,000.

   My third fact, again according to RIS Media is that in the 2^nd quarter of 2014, 950,000 homes returned to a positive equity situation, meaning that these homes are now worth more than the outstanding mortgage balance on those homes.  As you may recall, when the real estate market was adversely affected by the last recession many homes nationwide lost value and owners owed more in mortgage loans that their homes were worth.  RIS claims that as of today, 14.9% of homes nationwide are still in a negative equity situation but that represents 2 million fewer homes underwater than just a year ago.

     I think we can draw several conclusions from this data.  First, the real estate market is on sound ground and continues to improve.  Second, new home construction continues to recover.  Third, prices continue to rise slowly.  And finally inventory levels are still lower than normal and there is demand for more listings.

    All of the information in this month’s Market Watch is national data although I believe that the same trends I’ve just discussed apply locally.  As is always the case with real estate, demand and price for homes is always specific to one individual home.  Please give me a call if you would like to discuss the value of your house or the home you are considering buying. You can reach me on my cell phone 812-499-9234 or email: Rolando@RolandoTrentini.com 

If you want to do some research before we talk, the most accurate information on our local real estate market is always at FCTuckerEmge.com.

Market Watch August 2014

The biggest news story in national real estate this past month has been the announcement of the merger between Zillow and Trulia.  Many consumers are familiar with both firms, but in case you are not, let me tell you a little about these companies.  Both companies are real estate advertising portals.  Many potential buyers and sellers visit these sites, under the impression that they are the best sites to visit to find a home to buy.  Zillow is ranked first and Trulia second in real estate internet traffic followed by Realtor.com in third place. 

I am certainly not privy to either Zillow or Trulia’s plans but both have publicly stated that they have no intention of actually selling or listing homes.  Their goal is to generate enough traffic to sell advertising and leads, primarily to Realtors. If these companies don’t actually sell real estate one might wonder why they get so much traffic.  Zillow is famous, at least in part, for it’s “Zestimates”.  In theory, Zestimates are estimated values for specific homes.  Theoretically anyone can go online, enter an address and get the value of that home.  Unfortunately, even by Zillow’s own admission, many of their Zestimates are significantly inaccurate.  Both Zillow and Trulia obtain information displayed on their sites from many different sources, some accurate, others not so much.  Sometimes information is updated promptly and accurately and other times it is significantly out of date and wildly inaccurate. 

I am not trying to tell anyone not to visit a particular site.  I am, however, very comfortable giving sound, accurate advice on local real estate websites.  If you are looking for homes listed for sale in this part of the world there is no site that is more accurate or up to date than FCTuckerEmge.com

Our site is designed to make shopping for homes as easy as possible without gimmicks or outdated, inaccurate information.  If you want to know the value of your home, ask me.  A website that has never seen your home, sold a home or visited your neighborhood will not be as accurate as a trained professional. Please feel free to call or email me if you are interested to receive the market analysis of your home. You can reach me on my cell phone 812-499-9234 or email at Rolando@RolandoTrentini.com

Try to stay cool and enjoy the remainder of your summer.

Market Watch July 2014

The halfway point of the year is a good time to see where we are this year compared to last year.  Before we look at this year compared to last I think it is important to remember how strong last year was.  Both unit sales and dollar volume increased over 21% last year.  This was by far the biggest year over year increase we have ever had.  It is not surprising that our results this year have been much more mundane.  Unit sales this year have declined by 6.3% while average prices have increased just over 2%.

     While I would never say I’m happy with a reduction in sales, the truth is I’m not really that disappointed.  Increases like we saw in 2013 are clearly unsustainable.  A moderate decline in unit sales this year demonstrates that the market has fully recovered from the housing recession.  I believe that by the end of this year we will be closer to 2013 levels than we are now.  There are two specific reasons I feel this way.  One is that the last two months of 2013 were very weak compared to the first ten months. The second is that the first two months of 2014 were significantly slower than the March through June period.  

     The two biggest factors affecting the housing market going forward are job growth and inventory levels.  Job growth has clearly been sluggish for the past few years but has begun to show some improvement in recent months.  Inventory levels are still significantly below historical levels.  The best way to increase inventory is to build more new homes.  I do believe that construction levels will continue to increase but not as fast as fast as the market demands.

     Over the second half of the year I do not expect to see the dramatic monthly swings we saw earlier this year.  I expect inventory levels to remain a challenge and I believe that if job growth improves, so will real estate sales.

     If you are in the market to buy a home you must be prepared to make an offer on a home as soon as it is listed and you had a chance to see the home. Homes that are updated and priced right sell within days. If you are in the market to sell your home you are in a good position. We have very low inventories. In either case, if you are buying or selling, call me on my cell phone 812-499-9234 or email at RolandoTrentini@FCTE.com

                                           Market Watch April 2014

As you may be able to tell from your allergies, spring has certainly sprung in Southwestern Indiana.  The real estate market is heating up right along with the warmer temperatures.  We are witnessing a significant increase in sales activity and anticipate that will continue through the spring.  Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, said a gain was inevitable, following a dismal winter.  (We certainly agree here!) On a national level, showing activity is increasing and sales activity is expected to follow suit as more inventory reaches the market. And in our office, the homes that are priced right and in good condition are getting lots of attention and in some cases, multiple offers. 

The key challenge will continue to be inventory.  We continue to see a shortage of homes for sale, with inventory rates near record lows.  While this shortage will drive an increase in median existing-home price, continued positive momentum is dependent on the availability of homes for sale.  Opportunity’s knock is getting louder on the doors of potential sellers, who at this point will dictate the performance of the local housing markets for the next couple of months. 

While need for listings is high, sellers must present a home that is in good condition and priced right. Working with a real estate agent from the beginning ensures you have a knowledgeable professional that knows the market and can help get your home sold in the shortest amount of time.

If you’ve considered selling your home, now is the time.  With many active buyers, you don’t want to miss this market surge!  And if you’re ready to buy, I’d encourage you to visit www.TheTrentiniTeam.com , where you can use our interactive map search to perfectly define your search area.  Until next month!

Market Watch January 2014

Before we talk about 2014, I think this is an excellent time to compare the real estate market in 2013 to the previous year.  My ulterior motive is that from virtually any perspective 2013 was a great year!

Unit sales in our market increased just over 10% from 2012 to 2013, while the median price increased 2.2% over the same time frame.  While these increases did not improve quite as much as our statewide increases of 13.6% in units and 4.2% in median sales price this was still an excellent year.  If you remember Market Watch from a couple of months ago, I pointed out then that the decline in unit sales and median prices was not as great as the state as a whole so I did not expect the increase to be as strong either.  2013 was the best year we have ever had in sales volume.  This was the first time that F. C.  Tucker Emge Realtors closed over $400 million in sales volume.

In addition to the increase in both homes sold and in prices, there was even more good news.  Both days on market and the list price to sales price ratio also improved.   Homes are now selling, on average, about 100 days after they are listed, down from 122 days at the beginning of 2012.  The final list price to sale price ratio averaged just under 96% for all of 2013.  Both of these numbers are sustainable and are good indicators of a stable market.

One statistic that is outside the normal range is the number of homes currently for sale.  As of mid December there were 2,326 homes for sale in our MLS.  This is the lowest number of homes on the market since May of 2005.  The message here is that if you are considering selling your home, get it on the market now.  The spring selling season always starts sooner than most sellers think.  On average, buyers look for 10 weeks before buying a home.  Since it takes 30-45 days for a typical transaction to close, buyers who will actually move in April or May are looking for homes online today.  Don't miss the best time of year to get your home on the market, and keep in mind the most visited local website is FCTuckerEmge.com.

If you haven't already registered to receive email notifications of new listings in you geographic area or price range give me a call and I can help you register.  You can even help friends or family find what they are looking for. Give me a call if you have any questions about our market or specific questions about the value of your home. You can reach me on my cell phone 812-499-9234 or email Rolando@RolandoTrentini.com

Market Watch

     Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), recently gave his annual forecast for home sales for 2014.  Dr. Yun has been the chief economist for NAR for several years and was recognized last year by USA Today as one of the top 10 economists in the country.

     His estimate for sales of existing homes in 2014 is 5.12 million homes, virtually identical to 2013’s 5.13 million sales.  He expects new home sales to reach 508,000 in 2014 compared to 429,000 in 2013.  This forecast says total sales will be essentially identical to last year.  Although sales may remain flat he expects prices to rise 6% over last year.  Steady sales with healthy a price increase is actually pretty impressive when one considers how much sales and prices have improved over the past two years.

     Over the past two years cumulative unit’s sales have climbed 20% and prices have increased 18%.  Those kinds of increases are clearly not sustainable which make this year’s prediction very positive.  Although prices are up Dr. Yun points out “We’ve come off record high housing affordability conditions in the past year, and are now at a five year low, but conditions are still the fifth best in the past 40 years.”  Dr. Yun also said that limited inventory; exacerbated by low numbers of new home construction, as well as a tsunami of new federal banking regulations, would hold back home sales.

     As is always the case, national statistics are interesting but your home or the one you are thinking about buying are even more interesting.  Trends in our market have been similar but less pronounced that the national numbers.  What is accurate locally is that although sales and prices have increased, homes are still very affordable.  If you would like to know the market value of your home or you are ready to start looking for a new one give me a call.  Although real estate is somewhat seasonal, homes do sell during the holidays and in January.  There is less competition in the winter and buyers planning to buy in the spring usually start looking months before they buy.

MARKET  WATCH

 There are a lot of positive things to discuss about real estate in this month’s Market Watch, both locally and nationally.  Although from both perspectives the news is good, the news is not necessarily the same.

     According to Lawrence Yun, chief economist for The National Association of Realtors, sales prices nationally are 13.7% above last year’s levels.  Prices are still 7.3% below their all time high (July 2006).  Days on market data is more difficult to obtain accurately but best estimates are in the 60-70 day range.  There is currently a 5.1 month supply of homes on the market.  Several factors influence these statistics.  Cash buyers represent 31% of the market.  This segment is largely represented by investors, who obviously view real estate as an attractive long term investment.  Distressed properties represented 15% of all sales in July.  That percentage is down about 40% from its high but is still almost double the historical average.  This suggests that shadow inventory is disappearing, which is good, but it will still take a couple of years to get back to historically normal levels.  Finally, first time buyers currently represent about 29% of the market, substantially below the normal 40-45% of the market.

     Locally, our market is very similar to the rest of the nation in terms of month’s supply of inventory.  We currently have a little under 5.3 months supply and have been under six months supply since April.  Our days on market is higher than most of the country and is still just over 100 days.  The most interesting comparison however is sales price and how it has changed.  While year-to-date sales prices are only up 4.7% from last year’s average our market is now at the highest level of both average and median prices we have ever seen.  The median price in our market declined for 4 consecutive years and our low point was in 2009.  Since that time our median price has increased every year with this year representing the highest average and median prices we have ever experienced in this market.  While it may not feel that way our market simply did not decline as much as the nation as a whole and our market has, at least in terms of price, completely recovered from the recession.

     One interesting thought I had after looking at this data was that it all made sense to me except I would have thought our days on market would be lower than it is, given all of the other market conditions.  I asked another Realtor in our office what she thought and she said

“It’s simple.  Houses priced right in excellent condition sell quickly.  Houses that need work or are a little over priced just sit on the market”.  She is right.  If you want to know the right price for your home or if you need some tips on getting your house ready to sell give me a call today.  If you want to see some homes visit FCTuckerEmge.com or give me a call. You can reach me on my cell phone at 812-499-9234.

     Last month I said I would make this month’s Market Watch a comparison of the first six months of 2012 to the first six months of 2013.  I knew this would be fun because by every measure, the first six months of 2013 have been better than the first six months of 2012.

• Number of sold homes increased from 2095 units to 2390 units é 14.1%
• Average sales price increased from $125,838 to $131,171 é 4.2%
• Dollar volume of closed sales increased from $262.1 million to $310.8 million
  é 18.6%
• List price to sale price ratio increased from 95.40% to 96.36% é .96%
• Days on market decreased from 124 to 111 days ê 13 days

     Our area’s increase is in line with statewide changes.  Nationally we exceeded unit increases and trailed price changes.  Statewide unit sales increased 17.8% and the average price increased 4.3%.  Nationally unit sales increased 13% and prices jumped 15%.

     We are very proud of our performance at F.C. Tucker Emge Realtors through the first six months of the year.  As a potential seller you should be very happy to know that our days on market and our list price to sale price are significantly better than our competition.  Our days on market for the first six months of this year were 97 days (compared to the market of 111 days) and our list price to sale price ratio for the same period was 97.36%, a full percentage point higher than the competition.  This means that on the average transaction at F.C. Tucker Emge Realtors our clients sold their house 12.6% faster and our seller received over $1,600 more for their house than did clients of our competitors.

     Enjoy the rest of the summer and please call or email if I can help with your or any of your friends real estate needs. You can reach me on my cell phone 812-499-9234 or email Rolando@RolandoTrentini.com

Market Watch

     Although home sales have improved across all regions of the country, including our local market, I believe there are some subtle differences in both the results and the reasons.  First, from a national perspective, existing home sales increased again in April to an annualized rate of almost 5 million homes.  This is up 9.7% from the same time last year.  According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) median sale prices for existing homes were up 11% in April compared to April of 2012.  Nationally foreclosures and short sales accounted for 18% of sales in April, down significantly from 28% last April.  Finally the days on market number nationally has declined significantly to only 46 days this April compared to 83 days last April.

     Locally we have seen improvements in all of the same areas but for the most part they have not been as dramatic.  For the first four months of this year unit sales, (both existing and new combined) have increased 9.1% over the first four months of last year.  I am confident that trend will continue for the next couple of months based on pending activity which has already occurred.  Our improvements in days on market and average prices have been much less spectacular.  Both have improved but not by statistically significant amounts.  We have however seen a .67% improvement in the list price to sale price ratio or just over $1,000 on a sale price of $150,000.

    There is a big difference in the reason for today’s sales figures and the real estate boom of 2005 and 2006.  In 2005 and 2006 the market was fueled by “easy money”, meaning lending standards were too lenient and a significant number of buyers were ultimately foreclosed upon.  Today’s market is based on a more tested economic reality, supply and demand.  Nationally in April there was a 5.2 month supply of homes on the market.  Locally April supply was similar at 5.65 months supply.   Three reasons for this decline in inventory are reduced foreclosures, a return to a more normal level of buying activity and new construction has not caught up to current demand.

     What does all this mean to you?  If you are a buyer, interest rates are at bargain prices and local home prices have not increased dramatically. Both interest rates and home prices will ultimately rise. If you are a seller, housing supply has decreased and new construction has not caught up so there is less competition.  If you would like to know what your house is worth give me a call and I can help you determine the market value of your home.  If you are thinking about buying you can see what’s on the market at FCTuckerEmge.com or just give me a call.  You can reach me on my cell phone at 812-499-9234 or email Rolando@RolandoTrentini.com

  It’s almost a new year, so let me make some specific and bold
  predictions about real estate sales in 2011.  Sales, compared to 2010, will
  be greater in January, about the same in February and will be less in March,
  April and May.  What does this mean about the state of real estate and where
  we will be after the first half of 2011?  The answer is, absolutely
  nothing.  In case you are wondering why I’ve started this month’s Market
  Watch as I have, let me explain.  The real estate market has experienced two
  tax credits that have expired since November of 2009.  In both cases the tax
  credits boosted, then slowed real estate transactions.  My predictions only
  reflect the reality of the real estate market returning to normalcy, without
  unusual stimulus.

       The national press will be full of articles discussing significant year
  over year changes in the real estate market.  Don’t be fooled by assuming,
  based on these articles that there are really big changes occurring in real
  estate sales.  We will not really have meaningful year over year information
  until July of next year.

       My advice for now would be to take advantage of very low interest rates
  that are sure to rise. Home prices locally have already stabilized, in fact
  the average sales price in our market has climbed from $117,592 for all of
  2009 to $122,430 through the first eleven months of 2010. If you or someone
  you know does not currently own a home, and is financially qualified, there
  will not be a better time to buy in the foreseeable future. The net worth of
  a homeowner, on average, is 41 times greater than the net worth of a person
  who does not own his or her home.  If you are contemplating moving to a
  different home let me give you realistic expectations about the value of
  your current home and show you the cost of the home you would like to own.

       Kathy and I would like to take this opportunity to extend our best
  wishes for a joyous holiday season and a Happy New Year.

For over a year now Market Watch has focused on statistical information.  I will continue to provide that sort of information on a regular basis.  This month, however, I will step back and take a “big picture” look at the housing market, long term trends, and general advice I would give to prospective homebuyers or sellers.
     Anyone who reads or listens to the media knows that everybody likes to talk about housing and most of them think they are “experts”.  Sensational headlines appear almost weekly and, in my opinion, are not as important as the size of the print.  In other words, one week’s statistical anomaly does not necessarily mean the housing market has changed significantly.  Homeownership is not a get rich quick scheme.  Homeownership works because there are several significant long term benefits.  I believe housing statistics are much more meaningful when viewed on a longer term basis.
     Residential housing has been one of the pillars of the American economy for decades, accounting for about 17% of our economy.  Clearly the housing market is not as strong as it was 3-4 years ago.  It is also true that there are more homes on the market today than has historically been the case. Part of the problem was caused by investors treating residential real estate as a short term investment.  In addition, there are some existing lending and related securities issues that have hurt the housing market.                                  
     All of those things being said, there are several overriding positive aspects of the housing industry that have not changed.  First, housing has long been a hedge against inflation and has historically grown fairly steadily in value.  Second, taking out a mortgage to buy a home essentially serves as a “savings account”.  Paying down a loan is, in many ways, the same as saving money.  Third, housing has significant tax advantages based on the deductibility of both mortgage interest and real estate taxes.  Finally, there are several reasons that housing’s current problems will lessen.  Over the past several years household formation has decreased while population has increased.  This trend is impossible to sustain.  Currently, America’s population increases by one million annually.  Even with this consistent growth there are 2.5 million fewer homeowners that there were in 2004.  When our economy improves, our unemployment rate declines, and foreclosures lessen there will be a significant resurgence in home buying.  When compared to renters, homeowners make more money, are better educated, are healthier, pay more taxes, and donate more to charities.
     The American dream of homeownership has not decreased.  The current rate of homeownership in the U.S. is 66.9%.  Even in today’s market 77% of American’s believe now is a good time to buy a home.  Homeownership has historically, and will continue to be a sound long term investment.  Buyers who sit on the sideline today will have missed a golden opportunity.

Please feel free to call or email me at 812-499-9234 if you have any questions.

I have some good news to report based on August pended (accepted purchase agreements) results.  August pended transactions increased for the fourth consecutive month.  As I have mentioned a couple of times over the past few months, the now expired tax credit makes month to month comparisons difficult.  The tax credit clearly stimulated, then depressed the housing market.  As expected May pended transactions dropped dramatically after the spectacular March and April numbers.  This coincided with the expiration of the tax credit on April 30^th. 

We have gone from 269 pended transactions in May to 387 pended transactions in August.  This represents a 44% increase.  Although that is good news, it is important to keep in mind that the 44% increase is from a low starting point.  What is good however is that the 387 pended transactions is slightly higher that the preceding twelve month average of closed transactions.  The average sales price in this May-August period has been virtually unchanged.  Both of these pieces of information suggest that our market has stabilized, both in terms of price and units sold.

I do not anticipate continued growth at these levels over the next few months.  Until the unemployment rate drops and our economy begins growing at a faster rate there will not be additional significant improvement in the housing market. 

We did add another enhancement to FCTuckerEmge.com last month.  In the detail section of every listing there is a “Community Info” section.  In this area you can click on “What’s nearby”, “Nearby Schools”, “Nearby Sold Listings” or “Community Stats” to get detailed location specific information about every listed home.  If you are not at your computer you can always get property information on your smart phone at Tuckermobile.com

Hopefully you had a chance to enjoy the fabulous weather over the Labor Day Weekend.  I’ll be back in touch next month with more current local housing information.

Market Watch For August 2010

Two months have passed since the expiration of the homebuyer’s tax credit and we’ve had time to see how the market would react.  As I predicted, we did see a decline in closed transactions from May and June levels as a result of a decrease in written transactions from the previous months.  And while the news isn’t great, it’s better than expected.  July brought an increase in written contracts up 37% from May and up 22% from June.  I believe July written contracts are more representative of the remainder of the year than either the spectacular numbers we saw in March and April or the depressed numbers we saw in May and June.

The tax credit has expired, but there really has never been a better time to buy.  I mentioned briefly last month that interest rates were attractive but I don’t think many potential buyers realize how much more house the same payment buys today than it did not long ago.  Thirty year fixed rates are now about 4.25%.  On a $100,000 loan that monthly payment (before taxes and insurance) is only $492.  That is $75 a month less than the payment at 5.5% and $140 a month less than the payment at 6.5%.  Buyers can buy the same home and have more money in their pocket or buy a bigger home with the same payment.  Either way rates are great and will not stay at this level.  Don’t miss your chance to take advantage of this opportunity.

While you are shopping for your home don’t forget that TuckerMobile.com allows you to search for any listed home from any smart phone.  It is easy to search by price, address or MLS number and you can save your search results.  Please call me at 812-499-9234 if you have any questions. 

We would like to take this opportunity to congratulate Kevin Eastridge Broker/Owner of F.C.TuckerEmge Realtors this year’s recipient of the Realtor of The Year 2010 Award.

Enjoy your Labor Day weekend and I’ll update you again next month. 

Market Watch For July 2010

We now have results from June closings and as I suggested, closed transactions declined from April and May.  Although June closings were almost 21% below May levels they were still slightly higher than the average for the preceding twelve months.  I do not expect July closings to be significantly different from June.  2010 will be something of a mirror image of 2009 for closed transactions.  The second half of 2009 was significantly stronger than the first half of 2009.  I believe that the first six months of 2010 will be stronger than the second six months of 2010.  The reason for this disparity in both years is the timing of tax credits.  The initial homebuyer tax credit expired in November of 2009.  The tax credits were subsequently extended and they expired in April of 2010.  I do not expect any renewal of these tax credits.

The best news going forward is that interest rates are at some of the lowest levels in history.  Since home prices are lower than they were a few years ago, and rates are great, you can buy more house with a lower monthly payment than at any time in recent history.

 We have also made shopping for homes easier than ever.  We just introduced Tuckermobile.com. This allows you to shop for homes quickly from your smart phone.  Now you can find everything from anywhere, any time.  Simply go to Tuckermobile.com and you can search by Street name, MLS number, zip code or any of several other options.  You can also save properties you select.  If you have signed up for MyFCTuckerEmge.com any saved properties you select on Tuckermobile.com will automatically appear on your saved searches.  All of this is free.  All of this is automatic.  None of it requires a download and it gives you 24/7 access to the entire MLS system from your smart phone.

 I can’t do anything about the temperature outside but I can help you shop from where ever you are comfortable.  Give me a call if I can help with any of your real estate needs and as always I really appreciate referrals if you know of someone else that is thinking about buying or selling.

Wishing you a great summer and we look forward talking to you soon.

As I said last month, sales in March and April were spectacular!  Many of the contracts written in those months closed in May.  Closed volume in May was at its highest level since June of 2007 and was $10 million higher than any month in over two years.  All those closings also reduced our month’s supply of inventory to just over 6 months supply.  That means our inventory of homes is at its lowest level in almost 4 years.  All of that is great news, but real estate results and conditions should not be measured based only on one or two month’s activity.  A longer period of time gives us a more accurate picture.  Pended transactions declined significantly in May, partially as a result of the expiration of the tax credit.  Closings will still be healthy in June, just not at May levels. 

The key question now is where do we go from here?  Although we will not see results like March and April anytime soon, there are several reasons, according to The Kiplinger Letter, to believe that housing sales are on a steady but slow increase.  First home prices are very affordable.  It now takes about 18% of the typical household income to meet principal and interest payments on a single family home which compares favorably with the long term average of 26%.  Second, consumer confidence is improving which is critical to expensive, long term commitments, like home purchases.  As I said a couple of months ago, three quarters of Americans believe now is a good time to buy.  Third, there is a consensus that credit conditions will ease and that mortgage interest rates will remain at their very low level for several more months.  We won’t, and we shouldn’t, go back to the freewheeling days of 2007 but a slight loosening of credit can be helpful without creating unreasonable risks.

The best tip I can give you about shopping for homes is to start at www.TheTrentiniTeam.com or www.FCTuckerEmge.com  We just enhanced and enlarged the size of pictures on all listings and are in the process of making several other improvements which we will roll out later this year.

Kathy and I would like to take this opportunity to whish you happy summer holidays and above all safe travels.

Observers of Tri-State home sales have something to smile about.

A report from the Evansville Area Association of Realtors reveals home sales in Vanderburgh, Warrick, Posey and Gibson counties continue to climb, well after federal tax incentives for buyers expired at the end of April.

Chris Dickson, president-elect of the association, said the number of single-family homes in the four-county area were up 18.7 percent the first 21 days of this May, compared to the first 21 days of May 2009.

The increase was slightly higher than the 17.6 percent increase in sales for all of last month, compared to April 2009, he said.

“Clearly the tax credits had their intended effect. They ‘primed the pump’ and got the housing market going,” said Dickson, a real estate agent with ERA 1st Advantage Realty.

“We expect the increased activity to continue, because buyers who did not find the perfect home in April are still looking.”

For statistic lovers, a total of 241 homes were sold in the four counties in the first 21 days of this May, compared with 203 homes sold during the same period in 2009.

Dickson said the median sale price continues to also increase, up 11.2 percent so far this May, compared to May of last year.

He said the current median sale price was $123,500 vs. $111,000 a year ago.

“The overall volume and contribution to the economy has increased by 33.4 percent. Over $34.3 million worth of homes were sold in the first 21 days of this May, compared to $25.7 million during the first 21 days of last May.”

Dickson said that although the tax credits are no longer available for everyone, they are still available for people in the U.S. military.

“Also, there is plenty of FHA and conventional mortgage money available,” he said.

“Interest rates are still at historic lows. Interest rates for a 30-year fixed rate are available for around 5 percent.”

Source: http://www.courierpress.com/news/2010/may/26/tri-state-home-sales-continue-be-strong/

The Indiana Association of REALTORS® (IAR) today released its "Indiana Real Estate Markets Report" for the month of April as a continuation of its "Indiana is Home" project.

The Report, found online at www.IndianaIsHome.com, was the first-ever county-by-county comparison of existing single-family home sales in Indiana. In March, statistics on other types of existing, single-family home sales - condominiums, duplexes, townhomes, mobile homes, etc. - was added to the report.

IAR obtains the data directly from 26 of the state's 27 Multiple Listing Services (MLSs), including the Broker Listing Cooperative® (BLC®) in central Indiana. To date, the Report represents 98% of the housing market statewide and 91 of 92 Indiana counties.

Statewide, April sales of all types of existing, single-family homes increased 28.4% from the same month last year; median prices saw an increase of 13.7%.

This is the seventh consecutive month that there has been an increase in median prices over the previous year.

"April showed continuation of an expected spring surge due to the federal tax credit," said Karl Berron, Chief Executive Officer. "While the increase in sales is positive, the best news is that inventory is trending down and there seems to be a broad stabilization in home prices, demonstrating that the tax credit did its job to preserve housing wealth."

As I said last month, pended transactions (signed contracts for sales not yet closed) for March were great.  Pended transactions for April were simply off the chart.  I believe that pended transactions for March and April combined were the best two month period in local MLS history.  As a result, inventory was just over 7 month’s supply.  I think the important questions, as a result of the past two months performance, are what does this mean and where are we going?

I think we know several things and we can draw some conclusions.  First, closed transactions during May and June will be excellent.  This will continue to keep inventory levels relatively low especially compared to unusually high levels we saw at the beginning of the year.  I also believe that the homebuyer tax credits that expired at the end of April were clearly a factor in these remarkable sales numbers.  The key question is: how big a factor were the tax credits?  If average pended transactions for May-July are only down 25% from April’s spectacular numbers the housing market is in excellent condition.  If pended transactions are down closer to 50% then we still have to wait for a fuller recovery.  I believe that the number will be between 30-40%.  That indicates that things have definitely improved and we are moving in the right direction, but we still have room for improvement.

Two other bright spots are an improvement in closed transactions over $200,000 and an improvement in sales price to list price percentage.  For homes over $200,000 sales are up 31.3% in the first four months of this year compared to the same four months last year.  Sales price to list price in April was 95.83%, the highest percentage in almost two years.  This is another sign of our improving market.

 School will be out soon and I’m looking forward to a great summer.  It’s easy to look for homes anytime, regardless of the weather, at http://TheTrentiniTeam.com

     What a difference a year, and maybe a little sunshine can make.  Real estate sales in March were significantly better; by practically any measure, than they were just a year ago.  January and February of 2010 from a local real estate perspective were virtually identical to the same two months in 2009, but everything changed for the better in March.  Last month, in our area, we closed 391 home sales, compared to 307 a year ago, a 27.4% increase.  The average sale price this March, on those closed sales was $123,980 compared to $114,002 last March, an 8.8% increase.  Finally the supply of homes on the market, measured by month’s supply, declined to 7.45 months compared to 9.7 month’s supply last March.  The 7.45 month supply was the second lowest monthly total in the past two years.  Only June of 2009 with 7.37 month’s supply was better.

     National surveys suggested that March was going to be a good month in many parts of the country.  The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) is a forward looking indicator based on contracts signed, but not yet closed, increased in February.  The PHSI in February of 2010 was 17.3% above the corresponding month in 2009.  Since contracts typically take 1-2 months to close increased March closings were inevitable. 

     So what does this mean going forward?  I am confident that closed sales in April will be significantly higher than last April.  (OK I cheated on this one because I know that pending transactions were higher this March than last March)  I am also confident that closed transactions will stay strong in May.  The unknown is the degree to which the expiration of The Home Buyer’s Tax Credit will affect sales this summer.  The credit expires if contracts are not signed by April 30.  I believe that sales this summer will be similar to last summer’s putting our market on a more steady and sustainable level.  I know we all want to avoid the significant price and sales declines of 2008 and 2009, and I believe we will; Great news for both buyers and sellers.     

Most economists and Ben Bernanke believe that the recession is over.  In addition, the “pending sales index” has increased for seven consecutive months, the first time that has occurred since the index was started in 2001.  Although both of these pieces of information sound great, and they are good, we should look beyond headlines to see what is really happening in the Evansville area.  We have seen a Toyota expansion, we are losing some Whirlpool jobs and we are adding some Berry Plastics jobs.  Currently national unemployment is almost 10% while the Evansville area is less at 8.6%.  Although the economy is improving no one we know is forecasting rapid economic growth.

Local housing sales continue at a very steady rate.  Over the past four months our local MLS has sold 1585 homes compared to 1600 over the same period last year.  Month to month sales have been virtually unchanged since May.  The supply of homes on the market in our area has also stayed very steady.  Although we can not say that sales are brisk, we can say that in some locations and price ranges the supply of homes is limited.  If you are curious about the housing market in a specific location or price range give us a call and we can help you with that information.

From our friends in the financial services industry we have the following to report: But for mildly weak 3-month and 30-year Treasury auctions last week, it was a strong week for the credit markets and even stronger for the real estate market. The reported quantity of mortgage applications for the week prior showed a 16.4% rise overall, with strong jumps for both the purchase money and the refinancing mortgages. The Freddie Mac weekly loan average rate fell to 4.87%. And the average of all mortgage rates (including jumbos, whose rates are declining while applications rise) ended the week at 5.27%.   

A little over a year ago my company, F. C. Tucker Emge Realtors launched a completely redesigned website designed specifically to help make the home buying process easy.  At the same time we started spending less money on print advertising and spent more resources enhancing and promoting our website.  This decision was one of the best decisions we ever made.  We are now selling more real estate than our next two competitors combined and more and more buyers are finding their new home at www.FCTuckerEmge.com  If you haven’t visited the site please do.  We think you will like what you see.