Tuesday, May 18 2010
As I said last month, pended transactions (signed contracts for sales not yet closed) for March were great. Pended transactions for April were simply off the chart. I believe that pended transactions for March and April combined were the best two month period in local MLS history. As a result, inventory was just over 7 month’s supply. I think the important questions, as a result of the past two months performance, are what does this mean and where are we going?
I think we know several things and we can draw some conclusions. First, closed transactions during May and June will be excellent. This will continue to keep inventory levels relatively low especially compared to unusually high levels we saw at the beginning of the year. I also believe that the homebuyer tax credits that expired at the end of April were clearly a factor in these remarkable sales numbers. The key question is: how big a factor were the tax credits? If average pended transactions for May-July are only down 25% from April’s spectacular numbers the housing market is in excellent condition. If pended transactions are down closer to 50% then we still have to wait for a fuller recovery. I believe that the number will be between 30-40%. That indicates that things have definitely improved and we are moving in the right direction, but we still have room for improvement.
Two other bright spots are an improvement in closed transactions over $200,000 and an improvement in sales price to list price percentage. For homes over $200,000 sales are up 31.3% in the first four months of this year compared to the same four months last year. Sales price to list price in April was 95.83%, the highest percentage in almost two years. This is another sign of our improving market.
School will be out soon and I’m looking forward to a great summer. It’s easy to look for homes anytime, regardless of the weather, at http://TheTrentiniTeam.com